Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread

Environment and Past Land Use Together Predict Functional Diversity in a Temperate Forest

Environment and human land use both shape forest composition. Abiotic conditions sift tree species from a regional pool via functional traits that influence species’ suitability to the local environment. In addition, human land use can modify species distributions and change functional diversity of forests. However, it is unclear how environment and land use simultaneously shape functional diversity of tree communities. Land-use legacies are especially prominent in temperate forest landscapes that have been extensively modified by humans in the last few centuries. Across a 900-ha temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern United States, comprising a mosaic of different-aged stands due to past human land use, we used four key functional traits—maximum height, rooting depth, wood density, and seed mass—to examine how multiple environmental and land-use variables influenced species distributions and functional diversity. We sampled ~40,000 trees \u3e8 cm DBH within 485 plots totaling 137 ha. Species within plots were more functionally similar than expected by chance when we estimated functional diversity using all traits together (multi-trait), and to a lesser degree, with each trait separately. Multi-trait functional diversity was most strongly correlated with distance from the perennial stream, elevation, slope, and forest age. Environmental and land-use predictors varied in their correlation with functional diversities of the four individual traits. Landscape-wide change in abundances of individual species also correlated with both environment and land-use variables, but magnitudes of trait–environment interactions were generally stronger than trait interactions with land use. These findings can be applied for restoration and assisted regeneration of human-modified temperate forests by using traits to predict which tree species would establish well in relation to land-use history, topography, and soil conditions

Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with an appropriate spread-skill relationship. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Bothnian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on severe asthma care in Europe: Will care change for good?

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put pressure on healthcare services, forcing the reorganisation of traditional care pathways. We investigated how physicians taking care of severe asthma patients in Europe reorganised care, and how these changes affected patient satisfaction, asthma control and future care. Methods In this European-wide cross-sectional study, patient surveys were sent to patients with a physician-diagnosis of severe asthma, and physician surveys to severe asthma specialists between November 2020 and May 2021. Results 1101 patients and 268 physicians from 16 European countries contributed to the study. Common physician-reported changes in severe asthma care included use of video/phone consultations (46%), reduced availability of physicians (43%) and change to home-administered biologics (38%). Change to phone/video consultations was reported in 45% of patients, of whom 79% were satisfied or very satisfied with this change. Of 709 patients on biologics, 24% experienced changes in biologic care, of whom 92% were changed to home-administered biologics and of these 62% were satisfied or very satisfied with this change. Only 2% reported worsening asthma symptoms associated with changes in biologic care. Many physicians expect continued implementation of video/phone consultations (41%) and home administration of biologics (52%). Conclusions Change to video/phone consultations and home administration of biologics was common in severe asthma care during the COVID-19 pandemic and was associated with high satisfaction levels in most but not all cases. Many physicians expect these changes to continue in future severe asthma care, though satisfaction levels may change after the pandemic

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on severe asthma care in Europe: will care change for good?

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has put pressure on health-care services forcing the reorganisation of traditional care pathways. We investigated how physicians taking care of severe asthma patients in Europe reorganised care, and how these changes affected patient satisfaction, asthma control and future care. Methods: In this European-wide cross-sectional study, patient surveys were sent to patients with a physician-diagnosis of severe asthma, and physician surveys to severe asthma specialists between November 2020 and May 2021. Results: 1101 patients and 268 physicians from 16 European countries contributed to the study. Common physician-reported changes in severe asthma care included use of video/phone consultations (46%), reduced availability of physicians (43%) and change to home-administered biologics (38%). Change to phone/video consultations was reported in 45% of patients, of whom 79% were satisfied or very satisfied with this change. Of 709 patients on biologics, 24% experienced changes in biologic care, of whom 92% were changed to home-administered biologics and of these 62% were satisfied or very satisfied with this change. Only 2% reported worsening asthma symptoms associated with changes in biologic care. Many physicians expect continued implementation of video/phone consultations (41%) and home administration of biologics (52%). Conclusions: Change to video/phone consultations and home administration of biologics was common in severe asthma care during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was associated with high satisfaction levels in most but not all cases. Many physicians expect these changes to continue in future severe asthma care, though satisfaction levels may change after the pandemic